After weeks of people being able to come and go at the Malheur Wildlife refuge for weeks – from what I saw, I swear the federal employees could have gone out there and done whatever work really needed doing -- now that there are only four people left, there are heavily armed, militarized check points on all the roads around the refuge. And you should see what happens at those checkpoints.

From what I understand, it’s not just a matter of showing your papers and explaining your business. If you approach one of the checkpoints, you are warned that you will be shot if you do anything other than exactly what you are told. From what I understand, these checkpoints are fortified with multiple vehicles, including Bearcats, with .50 caliber machine guns. To determine whether anyone who approaches a checkpoint has any business there, they make people get out of their vehicles – obviously at gunpoint, with the .50 cals always ready. Then they make people lay down on the ground, and they handcuff them before engaging in invasive, heavy-handed searches for weapons and other contraband.

That’s what another rancher I know encountered when he tried to go feed his cows. When he pulled up to the checkpoint, someone on a bullhorn threatened to shoot him if he made any misstep, before searching him as described, before finally allowing him to pass to do his chores. This is what locals are experiencing at the hands of the fully militarized police forces restricting their travel and activities in the area.

Erdogan was blunt; if the YPG pushes west of the Euphrates, it’s war. Well, looks like war then. The YPG is getting ready to attack the crucial towns of Jarabulus and Manbij. Russia most certainly will aid the YPG to reconquer Jarabulus. And that will directly pit – once again – Turkey against Russia on the ground.

In fact they don’t account for a changing population at all, as I discovered when I wrote a simple computer simulation to test his model. Thanks to a very basic calculus error, the lines actually show what the cumulative probability would have been if the population had started at the current level and stayed constant. So if we take the orange line at 10 years, instead of telling us the cumulative probability if the population had started at 5000 and fallen to 2500 over time, it gives us the value if the population had started at 2500 and stayed constant. Since this error occurs in equation 1, which the rest of Grimes’s equations are derived from… well, you get the idea.